A few years ago, I was also very embarrassed by the Spring Festival production suspension. Later, I specially invited several factory owners with deep connections to chat with freight forwarders and slowly figured out a set of rhythm and methods.
Let's first talk about when the factory will stop. Although the Spring Festival of 2027 is February 6, you must remember: the actual shutdown of the factory will always be much earlier than this. Most factories experienced a precipitous decline in production capacity during the week of January 25, 2027. Because foreign workers will take leave 10-15 days in advance and return to their hometowns, some factories even have only a few locals finishing up after January 20, and no production lines can be opened at all.
Most factories will start construction one after another from February 14 to 16, but if they truly return to 100% production capacity, at least after February 20, many will not run smoothly until early March. Because the workers come back in batches, they have to readjust the machines and wait for upstream auxiliary materials.
The safest operation is to consult the factory about the specific holiday time, production capacity, and resumption of work in January 2027.
How much safety stock should I keep before the holiday? This requires you to truly count your sales volume, and prepare more than 30% of inventory based on the original sales volume to cope with emergencies.
In the weeks leading up to the Spring Festival, freight rates soared by 25% to 35%, and in some cases even soared by 50%. The reason is very simple. Before the festival, everyone was rushing to grab the last few boats to dump the cargo. The shipping space was instantly squeezed out. The shipping company temporarily imposed a surcharge for the peak season. Coupled with the lack of cabinets, it was sometimes really difficult to find a cabinet. If you wait until December to book again, it will not be a bargain. It will be a question of whether you can board the ship. Moreover, the probability of a port being blocked and a container dumping will soar. The total cost you pay may far exceed the 35% increase.
My own experience is that at the beginning of January, enough quantity must be placed in the warehouse to support it until the end of March. From September to October 2026, intended orders will be placed to the factory to lock in production capacity. Cabinets must leave the factory and enter Hong Kong before January 15, 2027, making it more dangerous as they drag on.